Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Wisconsin Gets Fall Weather Eary ... La Niña Maybe?

Fall Sept cropped for topFall really hit Wisconsin early and with a burst of high wind and cool temperatures. Color of fall are starting toFall Sept 7 2010 still_799Fall Sept 7 2010 stillcompressed already appear in NE Wisconsin, well before normal.  Is it global warming, or the effects of La Niña (I pronounce the term incorrectly in the video).  

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center,THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO.  IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. 

THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", AND ARE USED TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1971-2000)”. More can be found at …

La Niña Advisory Issued
   • NOAA 2010 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
   • NOAA's 35th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop

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